9 – RFK Was NOT a Shoo-in for the Presidency
Kennedy initially decided against running for president because President Johnson was preparing to run for re-election in 1968. After meeting Cesar Chavez, a civil rights activist, in California, RFK decided to run for the presidency. He told two of his former Justice Department aides that he would try to persuade Senator Eugene McCarthy to drop out of the race. He made his plan clear before the New Hampshire primary as a means of preventing the anti-war vote from getting split.
Senator George McGovern urged Kennedy to wait until after New Hampshire before announcing his candidacy. Meanwhile, President Johnson barely won the primary ahead of McCarthy; and this excellent showing only enhanced McCarthy’s standing and his confidence. Kennedy announced his candidacy on March 16, 1968 and was immediately criticized by McCarthy’s supporters for being an opportunist. On March 31, President Johnson shocked the nation by pulling out of the race, and Vice President Hubert Humphrey entered.
Kennedy had mixed success during the primaries, but he knew that victory in California in June would eliminate McCarthy and set up a showdown with Humphrey in August. He was victorious and marched onwards, but soon after his victory speech at the Ambassador Hotel, he was gunned down by Sirhan Sirhan. Although Kennedy had momentum, it is easy to forget that at the time, most political commentators believed he faced a difficult battle just to beat Humphrey, let alone Nixon.
Anti-war sentiment grew during the summer of 1968, so it is likely that he would have defeated Humphrey. Also, the Vice President’s popularity slid to the point where he was trailing Nixon nationwide by the time of the Democratic convention in August. Even though Humphrey’s popularity waned significantly, he only lost to Nixon by 0.7% in the popular vote although he was well beaten 301 – 191 in the all-important electoral college. It isn’t a stretch to say that Kennedy would have defeated Nixon, but it would have been mighty close.