3 – Thomas Dewey (1948 Election)
Dewey belongs to the Ambrose Burnside school of ‘snatching defeat from the jaws of victory’ because that’s what he did in the 1948 Election which he ultimately lost to Harry S. Truman. Like Blaine, Dewey managed to throw away an election that was easier to win than lose. Truman was extremely unpopular and his Democrat Party was split three ways such as the level of dislike for their leader. Things were so bad for Truman that even his wife believed his chances of victory were slim.
Dewey was certainly a qualified candidate since he was the Governor of New York (an office he was to hold for 11 years) and already had one presidential campaign under his belt. While he was well beaten in the 1944 Election, the victor was the incomparable Franklin D. Roosevelt and Dewey did manage almost 46% of the popular vote. Almost every single prediction suggested a straightforward win for Dewey against Truman so when he lost it was deemed to be the biggest presidential election shock in American history.
So how did he lose? He became complacent and believed a win was inevitable. Since the Republicans believed they merely needed to avoid major blunders, Dewey adopted a ‘safety first’ strategy which was to backfire spectacularly. His speeches were dull, vague and utterly pointless. Statements such as “your future is still ahead of you” did nothing to rally people behind his cause. In contrast, Truman’s speeches were energetic and fired up supporters. As well as appealing to the white South, he also fared well with Midwestern farmers along with Catholic and Jewish voters.
Towards the end of the election, Dewey realized that things could be going against him and he wanted to change tactics. However, his advisors managed to persuade him from doing so which meant more boring, lifeless speeches while continuing to ignore Truman’s criticisms. This failure to answer Truman’s queries made him seem weak and in the end, he lost the election comprehensively. While he won over 45% of the popular vote, he was beaten 303-189 in the Electoral College; Dixiecrat candidate Strom Thurmond won 39 votes.
It was assumed that Dewey would win right until the night of the election. The Wednesday 3 November 1948 (the day after the election), edition of the Chicago Daily Tribune had ‘DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN‘ as its headline. It had been printed before the results were known in the East Coast states. One of the main reasons why the shock wasn’t predicted was due to the flaws in public opinion polling. Truman gleefully held up the newspaper following his victory in what is one of the most enduring images in U.S. Presidential Election history.