4. Iran’s Fine, Until It’s Not Fine
In 1953, the CIA helped overthrow Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh, a democratically elected leader who was too friendly with the Soviets for American tastes, and who was threatening to restrict British influence in Iran’s oil industry. The CIA threw all of its power behind the Shah, the hereditary royal ruler of Iran.
The Shah did enjoy some support in Iran before the coup. During the Shah’s rule, however, the government of Iran became more oppressive, pushed modernization too quickly, and brutally oppressed opposition groups. Further, many Iranians didn’t trust foreign powers, and especially the United States or Britain.
With the Shah pushing a largely secular, modern society, religion became a focus of grievances among growing anti-Shah movement. A massive network of Shia clerics spanned the country, and while they certainly weren’t the only power in Iran, they were gaining steam, and starting to mobilize the masses.
Only, the Central Intelligence Agency didn’t see them or the revolution coming. In the months and weeks leading up to the revolution, the CIA believed that everything was just hunky dory. After all, the Shah had survived numerous previous challenges to his authority, and if need be, he could crack down again.
Sure, the religious elements of Iran were becoming incised, but the CIA viewed religion as an anachronism, a challenge and threat from another time. There was no way a religious movement could overthrow a powerful, secular leader backed by Western powers, right? Just six months before the revolution, the CIA bluntly stated: “Iran is not in a revolutionary or even a pre-revolutionary situation.”
To be clear, the CIA’s failure isn’t just about ego. In the months leading up to the Shah was taking advice from American leaders to take it easy on the opposition, and to not sweat it so much. The Shah listened, helping to pave the way for the growing revolution movement. Then, six months later, the people took to the streets, general strikes were called, and rebel troops began engaging with troops loyal to the Shah. The U.S. Embassy was also besieged, and American diplomats were taken hostage.