18. Earhart likely lacked the fuel needed to reach Nikumaroro
As Earhart’s Electra approached Howland, she radioed Itasca several messages. On one she exclaimed “We must be on you, but cannot see you”, and in another she reported she was flying on a line running southeast to northeast, though she did not report in which of those directions she was heading. Her signal strength convinced Itasca’s radio operator to go out on deck, in the belief her airplane could be seen. Evidence suggests that were she that close to Howland Island, her remaining fuel did not allow the flying time necessary to reach Gardner Island. She had by then been in the air for 20 hours. Supporters of the Gardner Island hypothesis argue the modified Electra carried enough fuel for 24 hours flying time. If so, they claim, she had more than enough fuel to reach Nikumaroro, about 350 miles southeast of Howland Island.
According to skeptics of the Gardner Island hypothesis, the theory ignores the weather conditions encountered during the Electra’s last flight. It also ignores Earhart’s own transmission reporting her being low on fuel. The headwinds during her flight from Lae to Howland Island exceeded 26 mph, more than double the forecast. She also encountered a heavy storm shortly after takeoff. The storm forced a rapid climb to avoid adverse conditions, which also burned fuel at an unexpected rate. In 1999 the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at Caltech developed a model showing Earhart’s fuel all but gone by the time she contacted Itasca. Certainly, she did not have enough remaining to fly from the proximity of Howland Island to a landing 350 miles away.