3 – 21st Century CSA
It is unlikely that the CSA would have survived for very long had it seceded as the result of a negotiated settlement. I looked at reasons for this in scenario #1, but other considerations include the fact that the relationship between North & South would have remained tense. At best, there would have been a somewhat ‘peaceful’ period between the newly divided nations, but abolitionists in the North would have continued to protest against slavery. The Underground Railroad would probably have had to be expanded, and skirmishes along the border would be inevitable. In the end, a second Civil War is entirely possible.
The CSA ‘might’ have survived with a military victory that allowed it to negotiate a political settlement on its terms. How it would achieve such a win is a topic for another article. While the South would still be economically inferior, it could still gain some leverage. For instance, it could gain control of the Mississippi River Delta and benefit from this trading route. In theory, the CSA could have had influence in the Caribbean Sea if it created a naval construction program.
The Spanish-American War in 1898 could have ended differently. In reality, the United States backed a Cuban rebellion against Spain, but in our alternate history, the CSA and the USA could have taken different sides. The lingering specter of slavery would have led to some interesting developments as we go into the 1900s. North opposition would be constant and the CSA might have decided to create a South African style Apartheid regime where legal slavery was abolished, but ex-slaves would still be treated abominably.
The major conflicts of the 20th century would all have been irrevocably altered. In World War I, the infamous intercepted Zimmermann telegram contained details of a strategy to get Mexico on the side of Germany. What would the Central Powers do to get the CSA on its side? Given the racist ideology practiced in the CSA, would its leaders have tried to intervene against Hitler in World War II or even supported him in some way? Maybe a reduction in American assistance would have allowed the Nazis to defeat its European enemies if they somehow found a way to defeat the Soviet Union.
And what of the Cold War? Perhaps it would have been the Soviets in control of a divided America. The 1960s was a time of great social change. Any Civil Rights Movement in our alternative history would almost certainly have been bloodier than in actual history. Fast forward to the modern era, and you have a very different-looking landscape as the United States’ foreign policy would be decidedly different. It probably wouldn’t be as dominant as it is today with less territory and lower aspirations.